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(Author’s note: this is part #2 of a 3 part miniseries on what life might be like when we run out of oil.)

Let me say this about that.

Part #1 of this series, what life might be like when we run out of oil in 40 or so years,  made one basic point.  That is apathy, greed and stupidity have already conspired to prevent us from putting into place technologies that can replace oil as the platform solution for the world’s energy needs.  Even a President Kennedy “NASA Moon Landing” type program – scaled to global proportions – would be inadequate, even if we started today.  We simply do not have sufficient time left to build enough nuclear power plants, wind turbines, solar power furnaces, hydroelectric dams, or ethanol refineries to totally replace the oil we currently use. 

“Get ready.  Life is gonna change.”

As oil wells begin to dry-up, the price of gas will become prohibitive for the average person.  Scant reserves will be allocated largely to…    the military, to guard against other countries invading native oil fields.  The transportation industry will be nationalized and public health and national security priorities will receive shipment of supplies.  As most food is grown on large corporate-owned farms, they too will receive priority in fuel allocation. 

Panic building of alternate energy sources will be in full bloom, but lack of transportation for needed materials will hamper real progress.  Some large farms will have been converted to corn, soy bean and sugar cane production for conversion to ethanol, but lack of fuel to power farm equipment and theft by hungry transients will hinder efficiency.  Hydroelectric dams produce only 20% of the worlds power supply and their output is reserved for high priority government and security requirements, leaving everyday civil needs unsupplied. 

Near the end of the 40 year period before the exhaustion of the oil supply, mass civil unrest occurs in the world’s largest cities as people begin to starve.  Medical services are almost non-existent as hospitals have no electrical power. Even if they did, pharmaceutical suppliers have no power to run their factories, nor gasoline to power trucks to deliver medicines.  Looting depletes what little food is left in large cities.  “Murder-for-food” becomes commonplace.

As people begin to evacuate the large cities on foot, things take a turn for the worse.  Fresh water supplies are cut off with no electrical power to run water plants, no way to get repair crews to broken water mains, nor pump water above ground level.  Large fires level major sections of cities with no water supplies at fire hydrants.

With no gasoline for garbage trucks, trash grows without bounds in cities like New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles.  Rats compete with people for scraps of food, and massive outbreaks of cholera, typhoid fever, dysentery, and hepatitis follow the cessation of a clean water supply.  The situation is exacerbated by lack of water for toilets and lack of power for sewer plants.  Millions of people defecate in the streets making the piles of garbage uninhabitable even for the growing vermin population.

“The world is coming apart.”

During the first winter after the depletion of oil, tens of millions die in cities like Moscow, London, New York and Chicago from the cold.  With no fuel for vehicles, bodies are simply added to the piles of garbage.  It’s a God-send for the rats and the death spiral of communicable disease accelerates.

Hordes of starving and diseased city dwellers descend upon the small towns and farms of the south and midwest.  Food becomes an acceptable justification for murder.  Like  locust infestations from the old testament, the invading populations from the north deplete the only remaining viable source of food  – the small farm.  Survivors are reluctant to replant for fear of being killed for their small gardens.  Some trek their way to isolated areas and try to grow food in isolation, while others continue south to avoid a second winter.  By now, the northern latitudes are nothing but deathtraps.

With no food supply, some survive by reverting to primal skills of “hunter / gatherer”. Members of the former “white collar” class have no such skills and are nearing extinction.  Like scenes from the Kevin Costner movie “The Postman”, some small groups of people begin to band together for security and to grow small gardens.  Some survive, some are invaded by heavily armed barbarous gangs and killed.  Reports of cannibalism are common.

By the end of the second winter, after the planet’s oil reserves are depleted, the world’s population has shrunk from 9 billion to 3 billion.  The populations of the large cities in the northern latitudes have fared the worst.  Strangely, the residents of small agricultural communities in Latin American third world countries fared the best. Most of the populations of Africa, the Middle East, and the Sub-Continental region of India and Pakistan are all but wiped out – a result of centuries of unchecked population growth and lack of self sufficiency.  Even technology giant Japan, with few natural resources, is now inhabited by only a few elderly rice farmers.

In a poetic twist of fate, many of the surviving 100 million Americans, persevered through the second winter by illegally immigrating to the open lands and temperate climes of Mexico.

(What happens next, in part #3.)

And, that’s all I have to say about that.

Shambo